"Just as the results of the federal election exhibited a national movement to the right, the same dynamic occurred in New York State. With 4.3 million votes, Kamala Harris won New York State, capturing 55% of the vote (compared to Joe Biden’s 60.9% in 2020). Trump received 43% (as compared to his 38% in 2020). This represents the thinnest Democratic margin of victory since 1992. The drift rightward is a combination of factors, including a blunting and partial reversal of the leftward movement of the suburbs surrounding New York City, reduced Democratic support in NYC and increased Republican support in the exurbs/rural areas.

In regards to the above analysis, in 2020 President Biden received 86.7% in Manhattan while in 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris received 80.8% of the borough’s vote. In the largest suburban county, Suffolk County, Joe Biden and Donald Trump split the county evenly, however in 2024, Donald Trump won the county by 80,000 votes. In rural Oswego County, Trump increased his margins from +20 in 2020 to +24 in 2024.

Nevertheless, Democratic candidates defeated two Congressional Republicans, with a third potential flip on the horizon. State Sen. John Mannion defeated incumbent Congressman Brandon Williams in Syracuse. Josh Riley beat incumbent Congressman Marcus Molinaro in the Hudson Valley. And on Long Island, Laura Gillen appears close to defeating incumbent Anthony D’Esposito.

In the statehouse, the Democrats maintained their supermajority in the New York State Assembly and lost only one seat in the State Senate (losing its supermajority). Accordingly, New York State will retain its Democratic trifecta. Senator Iwen Chu lost her race to challenger Steve Chan. In the Assembly, Long Island Democrat Monica Wallace lost her reelection bid to Patrick Chludzinski and Aron Wieder defeated Republican Assemblyman John McGowan. While there are more races on the knife’s edge, these elections represent party flips."

STATE & BROADWAY, INC.

New York State Government Relations

Attached are the preliminary results for the 2024 General Election. Races that are not yet called are not coded in red/blue. Election results will be finalized once all remaining ballots are counted.